How many copies did Wizards sell?

11k to 18k copies, based on its 441 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

How much revenue did Wizards make?

Wizards is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How big is Wizards?

Estimated players who have it: ≈ 11k–18k; from 441 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Wizards and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Wizards's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.5M–11.1M

best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)

Games like Wizards

A typical game among these

≈ 7.5M–11.1M copies

≈ $80.2M–$122.6M after Steam's cut

from ~244k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is FPS (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 57k reviews in their first month; the range was 38k to 182k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share FPS (3 of 8) and Shooter (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter. The breakout hits carry Battle Royale + PvP + Third-Person Shooter; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS 2017	Est. copies ≈ 95.8M–155.7M 11x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.8M reviews Mixed	SurvivalShooter
RimWorld 2018	Est. copies ≈ 7.6M–12.3M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $72.7M–$195.4M after Steam's cut $132.2M–$300.7M before Steam's cut	$34.99	249k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Colony SimBase-Building
Squad 2020	Est. copies ≈ 6.0M–9.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $66.5M–$178.7M after Steam's cut $120.8M–$274.9M before Steam's cut	$39.99	244k reviews Very Positive	MilitaryRealistic
Raft 2022	Est. copies ≈ 9.4M–15.3M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $51.7M–$139.0M after Steam's cut $94.0M–$213.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	379k reviews Very Positive	SurvivalMultiplayer
World of Warships 2017	Est. copies ≈ 5.4M–8.8M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	157k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayNaval Combat
Paladins® 2018	Est. copies ≈ 10.5M–17.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	345k reviews Very Positive	Hero ShooterFree to Play
Teardown 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.4M–5.5M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $27.9M–$75.0M after Steam's cut $50.7M–$115.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	136k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DestructionPhysics
Slay the Spire 2019	Est. copies ≈ 6.3M–10.3M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $43.5M–$116.9M after Steam's cut $79.0M–$179.8M before Steam's cut	$24.99	220k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Roguelike DeckbuilderCard Game