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How many copies did Weed Shop 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 103k–167k
$565k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut
from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Weed Shop 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Weed Shop 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.9M–3.1M
best case 4.5M (House Flipper)
Games like Weed Shop 3

A typical game among these

≈ 1.9M–3.1M copies

≈ $21.2M–$23.1M after Steam's cut

from ~72k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: House Flipper at ≈ 3.4M–5.5M copies, ≈ $23.4M–$63.0M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 22k reviews in their first month; the range was 14k to 69k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Immersive Sim (6 of 8) and Simulation (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Design & Illustration, priced around $25.
When they shipped
4 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SteamSpy 2M–5M
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1.6x vs typical
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