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How many copies did A Plague Tale: Requiem sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 684k–1.1M
$9.4M–$25.3M after Steam's cut $17.1M–$38.9M before Steam's cut
from 28k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid A Plague Tale: Requiem and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including A Plague Tale: Requiem's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–7.1M
best case 7.6M (Far Cry® 5)
Games like A Plague Tale: Requiem

A typical game among these

≈ 1.2M–7.1M copies

≈ $18.2M–$106.5M after Steam's cut

from ~156k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Far Cry® 5 at ≈ 5.8M–9.4M copies, ≈ $95.1M–$255.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 8 to 93k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Exploration (8 of 8) and Action-Adventure (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Action-Adventure, priced around $60.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 5.1M–8.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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≈ 176k–286k
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ActionAction-Adventure
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Est. copies
≈ 670–1k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
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$1k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
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27 reviews
Mixed
AdventureEscape Room
DEATH STRANDING DIRECTOR'S CUT
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Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
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Story RichOpen World
Praey for the Gods
2021
Est. copies
≈ 78k–127k
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Adventure3D Platformer
Far Cry® 5
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.8M–9.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$95.1M–$255.6M after Steam's cut $172.9M–$393.3M before Steam's cut
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190k reviews
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Rise of the Tomb Raider™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$53.7M–$144.2M after Steam's cut $97.5M–$221.9M before Steam's cut
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Starfield
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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$49.99
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Mixed
SpaceSingleplayer

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