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How many copies did Grand Theft Auto III sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 943k–1.5M
from 15k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Grand Theft Auto III and predicted how it would do from its 7 similar games. Every figure here, including Grand Theft Auto III's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 167k–1.4M
best case 6.9M (Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas)
Games like Grand Theft Auto III

A typical game among these

≈ 167k–1.4M copies

≈ $315k–$535k after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 7 similar games are hits.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas at ≈ 5.3M–8.6M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Automobile Sim (7 of 7) and Classic (6 of 7).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Crime.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2014, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 70 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
2008
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.1M
8.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
30k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Crazy Taxi
2011
Est. copies
≈ 230k–374k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
4k reviews
Very Positive
RacingArcade
Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
2008
Est. copies
≈ 5.3M–8.6M
23x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
83k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction
Driver® Parallel Lines
2009
Est. copies
≈ 100k–162k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$273k–$735k after Steam's cut $497k–$1.1M before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World
Hard Truck Apocalypse / Ex Machina
2014
Est. copies
≈ 154k–251k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$339k–$911k after Steam's cut $616k–$1.4M before Steam's cut
$7.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Post-apocalypticAutomobile Sim
Hard Truck Apocalypse: Rise Of Clans / Ex Machina: Meridian 113
2014
Est. copies
≈ 47k–76k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$77k–$206k after Steam's cut $139k–$317k before Steam's cut
$5.99
831 reviews
Mostly Positive
Automobile SimAction
Street Racing Syndicate
2014
Est. copies
≈ 246k–400k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$202k–$544k after Steam's cut $368k–$837k before Steam's cut
$2.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
RacingOpen World

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