How much revenue did Shadow Arena make?

Shadow Arena is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How many copies did Shadow Arena sell?

Q: How many copies did Shadow Arena sell?

134k to 218k copies, based on its 5k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 134k–218k; from 5k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shadow Arena and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shadow Arena's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 31k–76k

best case 9.9M (NARAKA: BLADEPOINT)

Games like Shadow Arena

A typical game among these

≈ 31k–76k copies

≈ $177k–$512k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: NARAKA: BLADEPOINT at ≈ 7.5M–12.2M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 544 reviews in their first month; the range was 263 to 33k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Battle Royale (5 of 8) and Fighting (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Battle Royale + Martial Arts. The breakout hits carry Martial Arts + Mature + Female Protagonist; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2022. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Valgrave: Immortal Plains 2020	Est. copies ≈ 23k–38k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue Free	Free	935 reviews Very Positive	Battle RoyaleFree to Play
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT 2021	Est. copies ≈ 7.5M–12.2M 238x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	303k reviews Mostly Positive	Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
POPULATION: ONE 2020	Est. copies ≈ 62k–101k 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	3k reviews Very Positive	ActionBattle Royale
Hunter's Arena: Legends 2021	Est. copies ≈ 32k–51k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue Free	Free	1k reviews Mixed	3D FighterPvP
GigaBash 2022	Est. copies ≈ 54k–87k 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $368k–$990k after Steam's cut $669k–$1.5M before Steam's cut	$24.99	2k reviews Very Positive	SuperheroAction
Long Live Santa! 2017	Est. copies ≈ 107k–174k 2.5x vs typical SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue Free	Free	3k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayMultiplayer
SurvivalZ Battlegrounds 2019	Est. copies ≈ 10k–16k SteamSpy 20k–50k	Est. revenue $5k–$14k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut	$1.99	334 reviews Mixed	ActionIndie
Circle of Sumo: Online Rumble! 2020	Est. copies ≈ 25k–40k SteamSpy under 20k	Est. revenue Free	Free	1k reviews Very Positive	CompetitiveFunny