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How big is Long Live Santa!?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 107k–174k
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Long Live Santa! and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Long Live Santa!'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 173k–12.6M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Long Live Santa!

A typical game among these

≈ 173k–12.6M copies

≈ $59k–$14.1M after Steam's cut

from ~189k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Shooter (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shooter (3 of 8) and Battle Royale (2 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
NARAKA: BLADEPOINT
2021
Est. copies
≈ 7.5M–12.2M
1.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
303k reviews
Mostly Positive
Battle RoyaleMultiplayer
SCP: Secret Laboratory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
235k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Oxygen Not Included
2019
Est. copies
≈ 4.1M–6.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$28.5M–$76.7M after Steam's cut $51.9M–$118.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
144k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Colony SimBase-Building
Brawlhalla
2017
Est. copies
≈ 14.2M–23.1M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
413k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Animal Revolt Battle Simulator
2022
Est. copies
≈ 170k–277k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$703k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
7k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
IndieSandbox
HUNTERS FOR YOUR BRAIN
2019
Est. copies
≈ 893–1k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$4.99
31 reviews
Mixed
Spectacle fighterTop-Down Shooter
NEO AQUARIUM - The King of Crustaceans -
2015
Est. copies
≈ 17k–28k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$42k–$114k after Steam's cut $77k–$175k before Steam's cut
$8.99
351 reviews
Mostly Positive
IndieAction

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