How much revenue did Sonic Frontiers make?

$7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Sonic Frontiers sell?

Q: How many copies did Sonic Frontiers sell?

709k to 1.2M copies, based on its 29k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 709k–1.2M; $7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.2M before Steam's cut; from 29k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sonic Frontiers and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Sonic Frontiers's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 30.8M–36.3M

best case 40.7M (Wallpaper Engine)

Games like Sonic Frontiers

A typical game among these

≈ 30.8M–36.3M copies

≈ $177.5M–$758.2M after Steam's cut

from ~953k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Wallpaper Engine at ≈ 31.0M–50.3M copies, ≈ $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (3 of 4) and Story Rich (2 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Mature + Utilities, priced around $5.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 26.6M–43.2M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $438.4M–$1178.6M after Steam's cut $797.0M–$1813.3M before Steam's cut	$59.99	923k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldStory Rich
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities
Cyberpunk 2077 2020	Est. copies ≈ 24.4M–39.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut	$59.99	983k reviews Very Positive	CyberpunkOpen World