How much revenue did Arcane Waters make?

Arcane Waters is free to play, so there is no copy-sales revenue to estimate.

How many copies did Arcane Waters sell?

Q: How many copies did Arcane Waters sell?

4k to 7k copies, based on its 172 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4k–7k; from 172 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Arcane Waters and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Arcane Waters's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 42.4M–100.8M

best case 133.2M (Grand Theft Auto V Legacy)

Games like Arcane Waters

A typical game among these

≈ 42.4M–100.8M copies

≈ $429.0M–$795.6M after Steam's cut

from ~1.2M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Grand Theft Auto V Legacy at ≈ 101.5M–164.9M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 251k reviews in their first month; the range was 40k to 347k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Co-op (3 of 8) and First-Person (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Crime. The breakout hits carry Crime + Automobile Sim + Mature; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Terraria 2011	Est. copies ≈ 98.5M–160.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.6M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Rust 2018	Est. copies ≈ 42.7M–69.3M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	1.4M reviews Very Positive	SurvivalCrafting
HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024	Est. copies ≈ 28.9M–46.9M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $317.6M–$854.0M after Steam's cut $577.5M–$1313.8M before Steam's cut	$39.99	1.2M reviews Mostly Positive	Online Co-OpPvE
Phasmophobia 2020	Est. copies ≈ 20.9M–33.9M too small to compare SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut $208.6M–$474.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	842k reviews Very Positive	HorrorOnline Co-Op
Garry's Mod 2006	Est. copies ≈ 80.0M–130.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.3M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxModdable
ELDEN RING 2022	Est. copies ≈ 28.7M–46.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut $861.1M–$1959.0M before Steam's cut	$59.99	1.2M reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeOpen World
Left 4 Dead 2 2009	Est. copies ≈ 67.0M–108.9M SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue $184.1M–$495.0M after Steam's cut $334.7M–$761.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.1M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesCo-op
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy 2015	Est. copies ≈ 101.5M–164.9M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.1M reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction