How much revenue did PAYDAY 3 make?

$13.5M–$36.3M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did PAYDAY 3 sell?

Q: How many copies did PAYDAY 3 sell?

1.6M to 2.7M copies, based on its 66k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.6M–2.7M; $13.5M–$36.3M after Steam's cut $24.6M–$55.9M before Steam's cut; from 66k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid PAYDAY 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including PAYDAY 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 185k–1.2M

best case 56.0M (PAYDAY 2)

Games like PAYDAY 3

A typical game among these

≈ 185k–1.2M copies

≈ $1.3M–$10.2M after Steam's cut

from ~9k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: PAYDAY 2 at ≈ 42.7M–69.3M copies, ≈ $117.2M–$315.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Co-op (6 of 8) and Crime (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Co-op + FPS, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Looter Shooter + FPS + Multiplayer; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2007 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Kane and Lynch: Dead Men™ 2007	Est. copies ≈ 217k–353k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	3k reviews Mixed	ActionCrime
Monaco: What's Yours Is Mine 2013	Est. copies ≈ 538k–875k SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $2.2M–$6.0M after Steam's cut $4.0M–$9.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	9k reviews Very Positive	Co-op Stealth
Thief Simulator 2018	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M 4.7x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.7M–$17.9M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut	$19.99	40k reviews Very Positive	Simulation Stealth
Crime Simulator: Playgrounds 2024	Est. copies ≈ 54k–88k SteamSpy 100k–200k	Est. revenue $30k–$80k after Steam's cut $54k–$122k before Steam's cut	$1.99	2k reviews Mostly Positive	ActionMultiplayer
Kane & Lynch 2: Dog Days 2010	Est. copies ≈ 619k–1.0M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $1.7M–$4.6M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	10k reviews Mixed	ActionCo-op
PAYDAY™ The Heist 2011	Est. copies ≈ 2.6M–4.2M 4.8x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $7.1M–$19.1M after Steam's cut $12.9M–$29.5M before Steam's cut	$9.99	41k reviews Very Positive	FPSAction
PAYDAY 2 2013	Est. copies ≈ 42.7M–69.3M 79x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $117.2M–$315.1M after Steam's cut $213.1M–$484.7M before Steam's cut	$9.99	675k reviews Very Positive	Co-opAction
The Break-In 2025	Est. copies ≈ 65k–106k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $357k–$961k after Steam's cut $650k–$1.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	3k reviews Very Positive	VRMultiplayer