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How many copies did Riddle Joker sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 175k–284k
$1.7M–$4.5M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.0M before Steam's cut
from 7k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Riddle Joker and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Riddle Joker's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–1.8M
best case 10.3M (Doki Doki Literature Club!)
Games like Riddle Joker

A typical game among these

≈ 1.2M–1.8M copies

≈ $5.9M–$7.8M after Steam's cut

from ~32k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Doki Doki Literature Club! at ≈ 7.9M–12.8M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 7k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 27k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Dating Sim (8 of 8) and Anime (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Psychological Horror + Visual Novel. The breakout hits carry Horror + Dark + Psychological Horror; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Doki Doki Literature Club!
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.9M–12.8M
7.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
229k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Doki Doki Literature Club Plus!
2021
Est. copies
≈ 813k–1.3M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.4M–$9.0M after Steam's cut $6.1M–$13.9M before Steam's cut
$14.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HuniePop
2015
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.6M before Steam's cut
$9.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
NudityMature
Crush Crush
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–1.9M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
29k reviews
Very Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Tricolour Lovestory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 966k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$529k–$1.4M after Steam's cut $961k–$2.2M before Steam's cut
$1.99
28k reviews
Very Positive
Visual NovelDating Sim
Love Is All Around
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$3.1M–$8.4M after Steam's cut $5.7M–$12.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
46k reviews
Very Positive
Dating SimSexual Content
Senren*Banka
2020
Est. copies
≈ 923k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$23.9M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
37k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
NEKOPARA Vol. 1
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.5M–2.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$4.2M–$11.4M after Steam's cut $7.7M–$17.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
27k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
HentaiAnime

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