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How big is Vagrus - The Riven Realms: Demo (Prologue)?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 5k–8k
from 200 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Vagrus - The Riven Realms: Demo (Prologue) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Vagrus - The Riven Realms: Demo (Prologue)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 472–1k
best case 1.4M (Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition)
Games like Vagrus - The Riven Realms: Demo (Prologue)

A typical game among these

≈ 472–1k copies

≈ $3k–$4k after Steam's cut

from ~27 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition at ≈ 1.1M–1.8M copies, ≈ $6.1M–$16.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 16 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 9k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share JRPG (5 of 8) and Exploration (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action RPG + Third Person, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Action RPG + Third Person + Lore-Rich; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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