How much revenue did Alder Forge make?

$2k–$6k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Alder Forge sell?

Q: How many copies did Alder Forge sell?

546 to 887 copies, based on its 22 Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 546–887; $2k–$6k after Steam's cut $4k–$9k before Steam's cut; from 22 reviews (Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Alder Forge and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Alder Forge's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 752k–1.8M

best case 4.6M (Persona 5 Royal)

Games like Alder Forge

A typical game among these

≈ 752k–1.8M copies

≈ $8.9M–$26.1M after Steam's cut

from ~20k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Persona 5 Royal at ≈ 3.5M–5.7M copies, ≈ $57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 15k reviews in their first month; the range was 11k to 19k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share JRPG (8 of 8) and Turn-Based Combat (7 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with JRPG + Story Rich, priced around $60.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Metaphor: ReFantazio 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.7M 2.1x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $20.7M–$55.7M after Steam's cut $37.7M–$85.7M before Steam's cut	$69.99	43k reviews Very Positive	RPGJRPG
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ 2019	Est. copies ≈ 498k–809k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $8.2M–$22.1M after Steam's cut $14.9M–$34.0M before Steam's cut	$59.99	17k reviews Very Positive	RPGJRPG
FINAL FANTASY X/X-2 HD Remaster 2016	Est. copies ≈ 986k–1.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $8.1M–$21.9M after Steam's cut $14.8M–$33.6M before Steam's cut	$29.99	24k reviews Very Positive	JRPGTurn-Based Combat
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019	Est. copies ≈ 384k–625k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $5.3M–$14.2M after Steam's cut $9.6M–$21.9M before Steam's cut	$49.99	13k reviews Very Positive	Creature CollectorJRPG
Hyperdimension Neptunia Re;Birth1 2015	Est. copies ≈ 599k–973k SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $2.5M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.5M–$10.2M before Steam's cut	$14.99	12k reviews Very Positive	AnimeJRPG
Persona 5 Royal 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M 6.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut $104.9M–$238.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	141k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPG Story Rich
Persona 4 Golden 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M 4.3x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.0M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	88k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPGGreat Soundtrack
FINAL FANTASY IX 2016	Est. copies ≈ 598k–971k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $3.5M–$9.3M after Steam's cut $6.3M–$14.3M before Steam's cut	$20.99	14k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPG Story Rich