How much revenue did Metaphor: ReFantazio make?

$20.7M–$55.7M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Metaphor: ReFantazio sell?

Q: How many copies did Metaphor: ReFantazio sell?

1.1M to 1.7M copies, based on its 43k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.1M–1.7M; $20.7M–$55.7M after Steam's cut $37.7M–$85.7M before Steam's cut; from 43k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Metaphor: ReFantazio and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Metaphor: ReFantazio's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.7M–5.7M

best case 9.1M (Clair Obscur: Expedition 33)

Games like Metaphor: ReFantazio

A typical game among these

≈ 2.7M–5.7M copies

≈ $42.2M–$123.7M after Steam's cut

from ~114k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 at ≈ 6.9M–11.3M copies, ≈ $95.2M–$256.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 16k reviews in their first month; the range was 11k to 92k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share JRPG (4 of 4) and Story Rich (4 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Turn-Based Combat + Story Rich, priced around $50.
When they shipped: 2 of the 4 similar games shipped in the last two years, so this genre is actively shipping.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Persona 3 Reload 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $26.5M–$71.2M after Steam's cut $48.2M–$109.6M before Steam's cut	$59.99	65k reviews Very Positive	JRPGRPG
Persona 4 Golden 2020	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $12.0M–$32.1M after Steam's cut $21.7M–$49.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	88k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPGGreat Soundtrack
Persona 5 Royal 2022	Est. copies ≈ 3.5M–5.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $57.7M–$155.1M after Steam's cut $104.9M–$238.5M before Steam's cut	$59.99	141k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	JRPG Story Rich
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 2025	Est. copies ≈ 6.9M–11.3M 2.4x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $95.2M–$256.1M after Steam's cut $173.2M–$394.0M before Steam's cut	$49.99	279k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Turn-Based CombatStory Rich