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How many copies did Craftopia sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 502k–816k
$3.5M–$9.3M after Steam's cut $6.3M–$14.3M before Steam's cut
from 20k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Craftopia and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Craftopia's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 25.9M–31.3M
best case 129.3M (Terraria)
Games like Craftopia

A typical game among these

≈ 25.9M–31.3M copies

≈ $203.6M–$211.9M after Steam's cut

from ~563k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Terraria at ≈ 98.5M–160.1M copies, ≈ $270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Survival (8 of 8) and Crafting (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Sandbox, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Sandbox + 2D + Pixel Graphics; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2026, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Forest
2018
Est. copies
≈ 20.8M–33.7M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
683k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Don't Starve Together
2016
Est. copies
≈ 22.6M–36.8M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$93.2M–$250.7M after Steam's cut $169.5M–$385.7M before Steam's cut
$14.99
544k reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalOpen World Survival Craft
ARK: Survival Evolved
2017
Est. copies
≈ 26.8M–43.5M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut
$14.99
779k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Valheim
2026
Est. copies
≈ 13.9M–22.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$114.9M–$308.9M after Steam's cut $208.9M–$475.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
562k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Terraria
2011
Est. copies
≈ 98.5M–160.1M
2.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$270.6M–$727.5M after Steam's cut $492.0M–$1119.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
1.6M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Unturned
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.4M–31.6M
SteamSpy 50M–100M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
565k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlaySurvival
Rust
2018
Est. copies
≈ 42.7M–69.3M
2.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$469.3M–$1261.8M after Steam's cut $853.3M–$1941.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
1.4M reviews
Very Positive
SurvivalCrafting
Dying Light
2015
Est. copies
≈ 24.2M–39.3M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$166.4M–$447.4M after Steam's cut $302.5M–$688.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
496k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ZombiesSurvival Horror

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.