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How big is Hello Neighbor 2 Alpha 1.5?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 155k–253k
from 6k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Hello Neighbor 2 Alpha 1.5 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Hello Neighbor 2 Alpha 1.5's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 5.0M–9.0M
best case 22.4M (Tomb Raider Game of the Year)
Games like Hello Neighbor 2 Alpha 1.5

A typical game among these

≈ 5.0M–9.0M copies

≈ $51.1M–$84.2M after Steam's cut

from ~137k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tomb Raider Game of the Year at ≈ 17.1M–27.8M copies, ≈ $94.0M–$252.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Third Person (5 of 8) and Open World (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Female Protagonist + Third Person, priced around $20.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2010 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Rise of the Tomb Raider™
2016
Est. copies
≈ 6.5M–10.6M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$53.7M–$144.2M after Steam's cut $97.5M–$221.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
156k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction
Little Nightmares
2017
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.5M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.1M–$59.3M after Steam's cut $40.1M–$91.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
117k reviews
Very Positive
HorrorAtmospheric
Tomb Raider Game of the Year
2013
Est. copies
≈ 17.1M–27.8M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$94.0M–$252.8M after Steam's cut $171.0M–$388.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
271k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureAction
Batman: Arkham Asylum Game of the Year Edition
2010
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–9.0M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$30.5M–$82.0M after Steam's cut $55.5M–$126.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
88k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ActionStealth
Batman™: Arkham Knight
2015
Est. copies
≈ 7.8M–12.7M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$43.0M–$115.6M after Steam's cut $78.2M–$177.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
160k reviews
Very Positive
ActionOpen World
INSIDE
2016
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.2M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$21.8M–$58.7M after Steam's cut $39.7M–$90.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
76k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
2.5DPuzzle-Platformer
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$29.6M–$79.6M after Steam's cut $53.8M–$122.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
89k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureAction
Stray
2022
Est. copies
≈ 4.4M–7.2M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$36.6M–$98.3M after Steam's cut $66.5M–$151.3M before Steam's cut
$29.99
179k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
CatsAdventure

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