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How many copies did California Games (C64/DOS/Atari/Lynx/NES/SMS/Genesis) sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 570–927
$2k–$4k after Steam's cut $3k–$6k before Steam's cut
from 23 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid California Games (C64/DOS/Atari/Lynx/NES/SMS/Genesis) and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including California Games (C64/DOS/Atari/Lynx/NES/SMS/Genesis)'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 134k–278k
best case 863k (Punch Club)
Games like California Games (C64/DOS/Atari/Lynx/NES/SMS/Genesis)

A typical game among these

≈ 134k–278k copies

≈ $318k–$1.7M after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Arcade (3 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Punch Club at ≈ 658k–1.1M copies, ≈ $1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 838 to 3k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Arcade (3 of 8) and Platformer (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Management + Time Management, priced around $10.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Out There Somewhere
2016
Est. copies
≈ 288k–468k
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$791k–$2.1M after Steam's cut $1.4M–$3.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
7k reviews
Very Positive
PlatformerPixel Graphics
UFO 50
2024
Est. copies
≈ 186k–303k
2.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.4M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
8k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
IndiePixel Graphics
Punch Club
2016
Est. copies
≈ 658k–1.1M
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.5M before Steam's cut
$9.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
ManagementPixel Graphics
Backyard Baseball '97
2024
Est. copies
≈ 57k–92k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$156k–$420k after Steam's cut $284k–$647k before Steam's cut
$9.99
2k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
SportsCasual
Castlevania Anniversary Collection
2019
Est. copies
≈ 67k–108k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$366k–$985k after Steam's cut $666k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
ActionAdventure
Waveform
2012
Est. copies
≈ 135k–220k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$74k–$199k after Steam's cut $134k–$306k before Steam's cut
$1.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
IndiePuzzle
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward
2023
Est. copies
≈ 114k–186k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$628k–$1.7M after Steam's cut $1.1M–$2.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
Time ManagementPixel Graphics
Airscape - The Fall of Gravity
2015
Est. copies
≈ 130k–210k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$178k–$478k after Steam's cut $323k–$735k before Steam's cut
$4.99
3k reviews
Very Positive
Shoot 'Em UpExploration

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.