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How many copies did Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 131k–214k
$1.8M–$4.9M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.5M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 339k–519k
best case 1.3M (Temtem)
Games like Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster

A typical game among these

≈ 339k–519k copies

≈ $2.7M–$9.7M after Steam's cut

from ~13k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Temtem at ≈ 975k–1.6M copies, ≈ $12.1M–$32.4M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 33k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Creature Collector (7 of 8) and JRPG (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Creature Collector, priced around $45.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2018 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Monster Sanctuary
2020
Est. copies
≈ 315k–512k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Creature CollectorPixel Graphics
Cassette Beasts
2023
Est. copies
≈ 277k–450k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1.5M–$4.1M after Steam's cut $2.8M–$6.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
11k reviews
Very Positive
ControllerComedy
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin
2021
Est. copies
≈ 427k–694k
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.7M–$12.6M after Steam's cut $8.5M–$19.4M before Steam's cut
$39.99
17k reviews
Very Positive
RPGAdventure
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition
2019
Est. copies
≈ 384k–625k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.2M after Steam's cut $9.6M–$21.9M before Steam's cut
$49.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Creature CollectorJRPG
Coromon
2022
Est. copies
≈ 201k–326k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.1M–$3.0M after Steam's cut $2.0M–$4.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
8k reviews
Very Positive
Creature CollectorExploration
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance
2024
Est. copies
≈ 321k–521k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$5.3M–$14.2M after Steam's cut $9.6M–$21.9M before Steam's cut
$59.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
JRPGRPG
Epic Battle Fantasy 5
2018
Est. copies
≈ 187k–304k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.3M–$3.5M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.3M before Steam's cut
$24.99
6k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
JRPGFunny
Temtem
2022
Est. copies
≈ 975k–1.6M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.4M after Steam's cut $21.9M–$49.9M before Steam's cut
$44.99
39k reviews
Very Positive
Co-opMultiplayer

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