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How many copies did Blacksmith of the Sand Kingdom sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 4k–7k
$23k–$62k after Steam's cut $42k–$95k before Steam's cut
from 169 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Blacksmith of the Sand Kingdom and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Blacksmith of the Sand Kingdom's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 13k–17k
best case 117k (Our Adventurer Guild)
Games like Blacksmith of the Sand Kingdom

A typical game among these

≈ 13k–17k copies

≈ $26k–$95k after Steam's cut

from ~434 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: Our Adventurer Guild at ≈ 89k–145k copies, ≈ $368k–$990k after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 182 reviews in their first month; the range was 78 to 365.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Party-Based RPG (7 of 8) and Management (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Turn-Based Tactics + Management, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Turn-Based Strategy + Anime + Turn-Based Tactics; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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8.3x vs typical
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Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.