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How many copies did Dead Estate sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 165k–268k
$681k–$1.8M after Steam's cut $1.2M–$2.8M before Steam's cut
from 7k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Dead Estate and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Dead Estate's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 37k–91k
best case 33.8M (The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth)
Games like Dead Estate

A typical game among these

≈ 37k–91k copies

≈ $113k–$219k after Steam's cut

from ~1k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth at ≈ 25.8M–41.9M copies, ≈ $106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 742 reviews in their first month; the range was 192 to 21k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action Roguelike (6 of 8) and Rogue-lite (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Action Roguelike, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Great Soundtrack + Combat; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth
2014
Est. copies
≈ 25.8M–41.9M
343x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$106.2M–$285.5M after Steam's cut $193.0M–$439.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
460k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Action RoguelikeRogue-like
20 Minutes Till Dawn
2023
Est. copies
≈ 724k–1.2M
22x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$993k–$2.7M after Steam's cut $1.8M–$4.1M before Steam's cut
$4.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
West of Dead
2020
Est. copies
≈ 55k–90k
1.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$304k–$817k after Steam's cut $553k–$1.3M before Steam's cut
$19.99
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
Replay ValueRogue-like
Lovecraft's Untold Stories
2019
Est. copies
≈ 28k–45k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$114k–$307k after Steam's cut $208k–$472k before Steam's cut
$14.99
962 reviews
Mostly Positive
LovecraftianAction
Over 9000 Zombies!
2015
Est. copies
≈ 74k–121k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$61k–$164k after Steam's cut $111k–$253k before Steam's cut
$2.99
2k reviews
Very Positive
Action RoguelikeZombies
Survivors of the Dawn
2023
Est. copies
≈ 19k–31k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$42k–$113k after Steam's cut $77k–$174k before Steam's cut
$7.99
773 reviews
Mostly Positive
Early AccessAction Roguelike
Hell is Others
2022
Est. copies
≈ 29k–47k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$119k–$319k after Steam's cut $216k–$491k before Steam's cut
$14.99
1k reviews
Mostly Positive
Rogue-likeTop-Down
10 Minutes Till Dawn
2022
Est. copies
≈ 102k–166k
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Shoot 'Em UpAction Roguelike

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