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How many copies did Astronite sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 5k–8k
$20k–$54k after Steam's cut $36k–$82k before Steam's cut
from 195 reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Astronite and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Astronite's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 588k–1.4M
best case 25.6M (Hollow Knight)
Games like Astronite

A typical game among these

≈ 588k–1.4M copies

≈ $3.4M–$19.5M after Steam's cut

from ~14k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

6 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.5M–31.6M copies, ≈ $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4 reviews in their first month; the range was 1 to 3k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Metroidvania (7 of 8) and Exploration (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Souls-like, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Hollow Knight
2017
Est. copies
≈ 19.5M–31.6M
41x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut
$14.99
566k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Momodora: Reverie Under The Moonlight
2016
Est. copies
≈ 498k–809k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.7M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.7M before Steam's cut
$9.99
12k reviews
Very Positive
Metroidvania2D Platformer
Touhou Luna Nights
2019
Est. copies
≈ 432k–701k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.1M–$5.7M after Steam's cut $3.9M–$8.8M before Steam's cut
$17.99
15k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MetroidvaniaDifficult
Monster Sanctuary
2020
Est. copies
≈ 315k–512k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$1.7M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
13k reviews
Very Positive
Creature CollectorPixel Graphics
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.2M–2.0M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$13.2M–$35.6M after Steam's cut $24.1M–$54.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
42k reviews
Very Positive
Rabi-Ribi
2016
Est. copies
≈ 511k–830k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.5M–$6.8M after Steam's cut $4.6M–$10.4M before Steam's cut
$17.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeMetroidvania
Mira's Brush
2022
Est. copies
≈ 322–524
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$442–$1k after Steam's cut $803–$2k before Steam's cut
$4.99
13 reviews
Mixed
RetroColorful
Aldoria
2024
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$102–$275 after Steam's cut $185–$423 before Steam's cut
$4.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
MetroidvaniaRetro

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