How much revenue did Aeterna Noctis make?

$443k–$1.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Aeterna Noctis sell?

Q: How many copies did Aeterna Noctis sell?

54k to 87k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 54k–87k; $443k–$1.2M after Steam's cut $805k–$1.8M before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Aeterna Noctis and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Aeterna Noctis's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 584k–3.1M

best case 25.6M (Hollow Knight)

Games like Aeterna Noctis

A typical game among these

≈ 584k–3.1M copies

≈ $5.6M–$39.9M after Steam's cut

from ~34k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Hollow Knight at ≈ 19.5M–31.6M copies, ≈ $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 8k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 23k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Metroidvania (8 of 8) and Souls-like (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Metroidvania + Souls-like, priced around $15.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Rogue Legacy 2 2022	Est. copies ≈ 376k–611k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.6M–$6.9M after Steam's cut $4.7M–$10.7M before Steam's cut	$24.99	15k reviews Very Positive	ArcadeMetroidvania
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist 2025	Est. copies ≈ 468k–760k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $3.2M–$8.6M after Steam's cut $5.8M–$13.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	19k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Metroidvania2D
Hollow Knight 2017	Est. copies ≈ 19.5M–31.6M 17x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $80.3M–$215.8M after Steam's cut $145.9M–$332.0M before Steam's cut	$14.99	566k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Metroidvania Souls-like
Blasphemous 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.0M–3.2M 2.0x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $18.8M–$50.7M after Steam's cut $34.3M–$78.0M before Steam's cut	$34.99	68k reviews Very Positive	MetroidvaniaPixel Graphics
Salt and Sanctuary 2016	Est. copies ≈ 915k–1.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $4.5M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.2M–$18.7M before Steam's cut	$17.99	22k reviews Very Positive	Souls-like Metroidvania
Ori and the Will of the Wisps 2020	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.9M 4.3x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $30.0M–$80.6M after Steam's cut $54.5M–$124.0M before Steam's cut	$29.99	147k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	BeautifulMetroidvania
Afterimage 2023	Est. copies ≈ 260k–423k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.3M–$7.4M before Steam's cut	$24.99	10k reviews Mostly Positive	MetroidvaniaFemale Protagonist
Nine Sols 2024	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $9.4M–$25.2M after Steam's cut $17.0M–$38.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	46k reviews Very Positive	Metroidvania Souls-like