How much revenue did DEFCON make?

$904k–$2.4M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did DEFCON sell?

Q: How many copies did DEFCON sell?

274k to 445k copies, based on its 4k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 274k–445k; $904k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.7M before Steam's cut; from 4k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid DEFCON and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including DEFCON's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.2M–6.4M

best case 88.0M (Left 4 Dead 2)

Games like DEFCON

A typical game among these

≈ 1.2M–6.4M copies

≈ $11.3M–$41.7M after Steam's cut

from ~66k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Shooter (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Left 4 Dead 2 at ≈ 67.0M–108.9M copies, ≈ $184.1M–$495.0M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Shooter (4 of 8) and Co-op (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Zombies + Co-op, priced around $10.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2008 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
GTFO 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.7M–2.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $18.2M–$49.1M after Steam's cut $33.2M–$75.5M before Steam's cut	$39.99	67k reviews Very Positive	Online Co-OpHorror
Left 4 Dead 2008	Est. copies ≈ 4.3M–7.0M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $11.9M–$31.9M after Steam's cut $21.5M–$49.0M before Steam's cut	$9.99	68k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesCo-op
Left 4 Dead 2 2009	Est. copies ≈ 67.0M–108.9M 16x vs typical SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue $184.1M–$495.0M after Steam's cut $334.7M–$761.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.1M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ZombiesCo-op
Door Kickers: Action Squad 2018	Est. copies ≈ 323k–524k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.2M–$3.3M after Steam's cut $2.3M–$5.1M before Steam's cut	$13.99	11k reviews Very Positive	2D PlatformerPixel Graphics
Age of Empires II (Retired) 2013	Est. copies ≈ 6.5M–10.6M 1.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $35.7M–$96.1M after Steam's cut $65.0M–$147.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	103k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	StrategyRTS
Sins of a Solar Empire®: Rebellion 2012	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.7M–$15.3M after Steam's cut $10.3M–$23.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	16k reviews Very Positive	ManagementDiplomacy
Plague Inc: Evolved 2016	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $11.3M–$30.4M after Steam's cut $20.6M–$46.8M before Steam's cut	$14.99	66k reviews Very Positive	StrategySimulation
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War 2018	Est. copies ≈ 572k–929k SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $6.3M–$16.9M after Steam's cut $11.4M–$26.0M before Steam's cut	$39.99	19k reviews Very Positive	StrategyWarhammer 40K