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How many copies did IL-2 Sturmovik: 1946 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 203k–330k
$559k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $1.0M–$2.3M before Steam's cut
from 3k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid IL-2 Sturmovik: 1946 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including IL-2 Sturmovik: 1946's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 201k–517k
best case 65.2M (War Thunder)
Games like IL-2 Sturmovik: 1946

A typical game among these

≈ 201k–517k copies

≈ $2.8M–$9.3M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: War Thunder at ≈ 49.7M–80.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Flight (7 of 8) and World War II (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Vehicular Combat. The breakout hits carry Vehicular Combat + Combat + VR; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2009 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

WWII Online
2023
Est. copies
≈ 94k–153k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
4k reviews
Mixed
FlightFPS
IL-2 Sturmovik: Battle of Stalingrad
2014
Est. copies
≈ 559k–909k
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.8M before Steam's cut
$49.99
10k reviews
Mostly Positive
FlightRealistic
Battlestations Pacific
2009
Est. copies
≈ 165k–268k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Mostly Positive
World War IIStrategy
War Thunder
2013
Est. copies
≈ 49.7M–80.7M
174x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
786k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlaySimulation
Rise of Flight United
2013
Est. copies
≈ 173k–281k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Mixed
SimulationFlight
World of Warplanes
2022
Est. copies
≈ 141k–229k
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
6k reviews
Mixed
FlightFPS
LUFTRAUSERS
2014
Est. copies
≈ 253k–412k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$696k–$1.9M after Steam's cut $1.3M–$2.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
5k reviews
Very Positive
IndieBullet Hell
Bomber Crew
2017
Est. copies
≈ 535k–869k
3.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$15.99
16k reviews
Very Positive
World War IISimulation

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