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How big is World of Warplanes?

Estimated players who have it
≈ 141k–229k
from 6k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid World of Warplanes and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including World of Warplanes's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–32k
best case 65.2M (War Thunder)
Games like World of Warplanes

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–32k copies

≈ $8k–$15k after Steam's cut

from ~126 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: War Thunder at ≈ 49.7M–80.7M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 25 reviews in their first month; the range was 19 to 38.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Flight (5 of 8) and FPS (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Simulation + Vehicular Combat. The breakout hits carry Vehicular Combat + Combat + World War II; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2013 to 2022, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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SandboxSpace

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