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How many copies did Sword and Fairy 3 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 51k–83k
$113k–$303k after Steam's cut $205k–$466k before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sword and Fairy 3 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sword and Fairy 3's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.1M–5.1M
best case 57.5M (The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered)
Games like Sword and Fairy 3

A typical game among these

≈ 1.1M–5.1M copies

≈ $17.3M–$32.2M after Steam's cut

from ~45k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered at ≈ 43.8M–71.2M copies, ≈ $602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 4k reviews in their first month; the range was 2k to 27k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Fantasy (6 of 8) and Story Rich (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Story Rich, priced around $50. The breakout hits carry Open World + Atmospheric + Mature; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2008 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Witcher 2: Assassins of Kings Enhanced Edition
2012
Est. copies
≈ 5.7M–9.3M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$31.5M–$84.6M after Steam's cut $57.2M–$130.2M before Steam's cut
$19.99
91k reviews
Very Positive
RPGFantasy
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered
2015
Est. copies
≈ 43.8M–71.2M
20x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut $1095.5M–$2492.3M before Steam's cut
$49.99
898k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open WorldRPG
The Forgotten City
2021
Est. copies
≈ 341k–554k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.3M–$9.7M before Steam's cut
$24.99
14k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AdventureTime Travel
Blasphemous 2
2023
Est. copies
≈ 540k–878k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$6.7M–$18.0M after Steam's cut $12.1M–$27.6M before Steam's cut
$44.99
22k reviews
Very Positive
CombatFantasy
OMORI
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.6M
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.1M–$32.6M after Steam's cut $22.0M–$50.1M before Steam's cut
$19.99
89k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
The Witcher: Enhanced Edition Director's Cut
2008
Est. copies
≈ 5.5M–9.0M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$15.2M–$40.9M after Steam's cut $27.7M–$63.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
88k reviews
Very Positive
RPGFantasy
Dragon Age™: The Veilguard
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.6M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.3M before Steam's cut
$59.99
45k reviews
Mixed
LGBTQ+Fantasy
Dragon Age: Origins - Ultimate Edition
2010
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$16.4M–$44.2M after Steam's cut $29.9M–$67.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
32k reviews
Very Positive
RPGFantasy

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