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How many copies did Sword and Space sell?

Too new to estimate
Games in its genre sell ≈ 139–1.9M That is the genre's figure, not a prediction for this game.
No reviews yet, so there is nothing to estimate from. That is not the same as selling nothing.
Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Sword and Space and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Sword and Space's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 139–1.9M
best case 8.6M (Detroit: Become Human)
Games like Sword and Space

A typical game among these

≈ 139–1.9M copies

≈ $111–$12.8M after Steam's cut

from ~602 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

4 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Detroit: Become Human at ≈ 6.6M–10.7M copies, ≈ $72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 8k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Story Rich (5 of 8) and Faith (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Choices Matter + Story Rich, priced around $40.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2011 to 2025, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Bastion
2011
Est. copies
≈ 2.4M–3.9M
63x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$10.0M–$26.8M after Steam's cut $18.1M–$41.2M before Steam's cut
$14.99
38k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Great SoundtrackIndie
Detroit: Become Human
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.6M–10.7M
439x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$72.1M–$193.9M after Steam's cut $131.1M–$298.3M before Steam's cut
$39.99
264k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Choices MatterStory Rich
Beyond: Two Souls
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.8M
73x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$6.0M–$16.0M after Steam's cut $10.9M–$24.7M before Steam's cut
$19.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
AdventureChoices Matter
The Bible
2022
Est. copies
≈ 29k–48k
2.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$40k–$108k after Steam's cut $73k–$166k before Steam's cut
$4.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
SingleplayerRelaxing
More. The Eternal Utopia
2021
Est. copies
≈ 124–202
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$34–$91 after Steam's cut $61–$140 before Steam's cut
$0.99
5 reviews
5 user reviews
Visual NovelChoose Your Own Adventure
Anjos do Duelo
2023
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$7–$18 after Steam's cut $12–$28 before Steam's cut
$0.99
1 reviews
1 user reviews
RPGAction-Adventure
Mr. Mueller's Grand Experiment
2024
Est. copies
≈ 50–81
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$69–$184 after Steam's cut $125–$283 before Steam's cut
$4.99
2 reviews
2 user reviews
Choose Your Own AdventureInteractive Fiction
許願ReadyGo!
2025
Est. copies
≈ 620–1k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$1k–$3k after Steam's cut $2k–$5k before Steam's cut
$6.99
25 reviews
Positive
RPGAction

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.