How much revenue did Lil Gator Game make?

$843k–$2.3M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Lil Gator Game sell?

Q: How many copies did Lil Gator Game sell?

153k to 249k copies, based on its 6k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 153k–249k; $843k–$2.3M after Steam's cut $1.5M–$3.5M before Steam's cut; from 6k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Lil Gator Game and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Lil Gator Game's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 754k–1.4M

best case 1.7M (Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition)

Games like Lil Gator Game

A typical game among these

≈ 754k–1.4M copies

≈ $3.1M–$12.8M after Steam's cut

from ~32k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Exploration (2 of 4), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition at ≈ 1.3M–2.2M copies, ≈ $11.0M–$29.5M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 3k reviews in their first month; the range was 321 to 4k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Exploration (2 of 4) and Puzzle (2 of 4).
The winners: Winners here lead with Emotional + Story Rich, priced around $30.
When they shipped: None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2021. That says more about which games were found than about the market.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
TOEM: A Photo Adventure 2021	Est. copies ≈ 315k–512k SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.7M–$4.7M after Steam's cut $3.1M–$7.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	13k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	CozyWholesome
Unpacking 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	41k reviews Very Positive	RelaxingCute
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.2M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $11.0M–$29.5M after Steam's cut $20.0M–$45.4M before Steam's cut	$29.99	54k reviews Very Positive	EmotionalStory Rich
A Short Hike 2019	Est. copies ≈ 661k–1.1M SteamSpy 200k–500k	Est. revenue $1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$6.0M before Steam's cut	$7.99	23k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	ExplorationRelaxing