How much revenue did Unpacking make?

$5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Unpacking sell?

Q: How many copies did Unpacking sell?

1.0M to 1.7M copies, based on its 41k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.0M–1.7M; $5.6M–$15.1M after Steam's cut $10.2M–$23.2M before Steam's cut; from 41k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Unpacking and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Unpacking's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–5.0M

best case 57.1M (Stardew Valley)

Games like Unpacking

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–5.0M copies

≈ $5.2M–$64.4M after Steam's cut

from ~50k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Simulation (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Stardew Valley at ≈ 43.5M–70.7M copies, ≈ $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 2k reviews in their first month; the range was 57 to 37k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Simulation (4 of 8) and Sandbox (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Farming Sim + Life Sim, priced around $15. The breakout hits carry Pixel Graphics + Agriculture + Farming Sim; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2016 to 2025, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Stardew Valley 2016	Est. copies ≈ 43.5M–70.7M 21x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Farming SimPixel Graphics
The Sims™ 4 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.0M–8.1M 4.0x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	201k reviews Very Positive	Life SimCharacter Customization
DARK SOULS™: REMASTERED 2018	Est. copies ≈ 4.8M–7.7M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $52.3M–$140.6M after Steam's cut $95.1M–$216.3M before Steam's cut	$39.99	156k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeDark Fantasy
Planet Zoo 2019	Est. copies ≈ 2.8M–4.6M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $34.9M–$93.8M after Steam's cut $63.4M–$144.3M before Steam's cut	$44.99	98k reviews Very Positive	Management Simulation
Draw & Guess 2021	Est. copies ≈ 874k–1.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $1.2M–$3.2M after Steam's cut $2.2M–$5.0M before Steam's cut	$4.99	35k reviews Very Positive	PartyMultiplayer
Dorfromantik 2022	Est. copies ≈ 735k–1.2M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before Steam's cut	$13.99	30k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	PuzzleRelaxing
My Singing Monsters 2021	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	50k reviews Very Positive	Creature CollectorSimulation
Slime Rancher 2 2025	Est. copies ≈ 1.2M–2.0M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.3M–$27.6M after Steam's cut $18.7M–$42.5M before Steam's cut	$29.99	50k reviews Very Positive	Early AccessCute