How much revenue did A Short Hike make?

$1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did A Short Hike sell?

Q: How many copies did A Short Hike sell?

661k to 1.1M copies, based on its 23k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 661k–1.1M; $1.5M–$3.9M after Steam's cut $2.6M–$6.0M before Steam's cut; from 23k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid A Short Hike and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including A Short Hike's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 6.7M–9.6M

best case 37.7M (ELDEN RING)

Games like A Short Hike

A typical game among these

≈ 6.7M–9.6M copies

≈ $38.4M–$61.0M after Steam's cut

from ~198k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

These similar games lean toward the genre's biggest winners; the typical figure comes from its ordinary successes.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Open World (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: ELDEN RING at ≈ 28.7M–46.6M copies, ≈ $473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (4 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Souls-like + Dark Fantasy, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry RPG + Souls-like + Dark Fantasy; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2012 to 2024, and 1 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
DARK SOULS™ III 2016	Est. copies ≈ 18.3M–29.8M 2.2x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $302.7M–$813.9M after Steam's cut $550.4M–$1252.2M before Steam's cut	$59.99	441k reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeDark Fantasy
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ 2017	Est. copies ≈ 7.0M–11.4M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue Free	Free	203k reviews Very Positive	HuntingOpen World
Balatro 2024	Est. copies ≈ 5.0M–8.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $20.5M–$55.0M after Steam's cut $37.2M–$84.7M before Steam's cut	$14.99	200k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Card GameRoguelike Deckbuilder
Stardew Valley 2016	Est. copies ≈ 43.5M–70.7M 5.3x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut	$14.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Farming SimPixel Graphics
ELDEN RING 2022	Est. copies ≈ 28.7M–46.6M 5.8x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $473.6M–$1273.3M after Steam's cut $861.1M–$1959.0M before Steam's cut	$59.99	1.2M reviews Very Positive	Souls-likeOpen World
Starbound 2016	Est. copies ≈ 5.1M–8.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $21.1M–$56.9M after Steam's cut $38.4M–$87.5M before Steam's cut	$14.99	123k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSandbox
Euro Truck Simulator 2 2012	Est. copies ≈ 59.7M–97.0M 4.8x vs typical SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $328.0M–$881.9M after Steam's cut $596.4M–$1356.8M before Steam's cut	$19.99	944k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DrivingTransportation
American Truck Simulator 2016	Est. copies ≈ 8.2M–13.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $45.0M–$120.9M after Steam's cut $81.7M–$186.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	197k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Automobile SimDriving