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How many copies did Selaco sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 127k–207k
$875k–$2.4M after Steam's cut $1.6M–$3.6M before Steam's cut
from 5k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Selaco and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Selaco's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4.4M–30.8M
best case 99.7M (Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege)
Games like Selaco

A typical game among these

≈ 4.4M–30.8M copies

≈ $43.8M–$172.7M after Steam's cut

from ~230k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege at ≈ 76.0M–123.4M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shooter (5 of 8) and FPS (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Tactical.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
6.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
4.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
Battlefield™ V
2020
Est. copies
≈ 6.7M–10.9M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$92.2M–$247.8M after Steam's cut $167.6M–$381.2M before Steam's cut
$49.99
270k reviews
Mostly Positive
FPSMultiplayer
Fallout 4
2015
Est. copies
≈ 21.0M–34.1M
1.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$115.2M–$309.7M after Steam's cut $209.4M–$476.5M before Steam's cut
$19.99
429k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldPost-apocalyptic
Mirror
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.1M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$1.4M–$3.8M after Steam's cut $2.5M–$5.8M before Steam's cut
$1.99
84k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentNudity
Far Cry® 5
2018
Est. copies
≈ 5.8M–9.4M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$95.1M–$255.6M after Steam's cut $172.9M–$393.3M before Steam's cut
$59.99
190k reviews
Very Positive
Open WorldAction-Adventure
Half-Life: Alyx
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.6M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut
$59.99
106k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
VRFPS
Soundpad
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.6M–5.9M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$4.9M–$13.3M after Steam's cut $9.0M–$20.5M before Steam's cut
$4.99
105k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
UtilitiesAudio Production

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.