How much revenue did Half-Life: Alyx make?

$43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Half-Life: Alyx sell?

Q: How many copies did Half-Life: Alyx sell?

2.6M to 4.3M copies, based on its 106k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 2.6M–4.3M; $43.2M–$116.1M after Steam's cut $78.5M–$178.5M before Steam's cut; from 106k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Half-Life: Alyx and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Half-Life: Alyx's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.3M–12.3M

best case 65.2M (War Thunder)

Games like Half-Life: Alyx

A typical game among these

≈ 3.3M–12.3M copies

≈ $61.2M–$88.5M after Steam's cut

from ~141k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: War Thunder at ≈ 49.7M–80.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share VR (6 of 8) and First-Person (4 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Simulation + Vehicular Combat.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2013 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
SteamVR unreleased	Est. copies ≈ 2.2M–3.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	87k reviews Very Positive	VRSoftware
War Thunder 2013	Est. copies ≈ 49.7M–80.7M 5.6x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	786k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlaySimulation
Resident Evil 7 Biohazard 2017	Est. copies ≈ 4.4M–7.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $24.1M–$64.9M after Steam's cut $43.9M–$99.9M before Steam's cut	$19.99	128k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Horror Survival Horror
Assetto Corsa 2014	Est. copies ≈ 9.8M–15.9M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $53.8M–$144.6M after Steam's cut $97.8M–$222.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	175k reviews Very Positive	RacingAutomobile Sim
Totally Accurate Battlegrounds 2018	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.3M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	88k reviews Very Positive	MultiplayerPhysics
VRChat 2017	Est. copies ≈ 9.3M–15.1M 1.9x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	269k reviews Mostly Positive	VRFree to Play
Rec Room 2021	Est. copies ≈ 2.1M–3.4M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue Free	Free	84k reviews Very Positive	Free to PlayVR
Resident Evil Village 2021	Est. copies ≈ 3.8M–6.2M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $42.2M–$113.5M after Steam's cut $76.8M–$174.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	155k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Survival Horror Horror