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How many copies did Serum: Toxic Survival sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 8k–13k
$54k–$145k after Steam's cut $98k–$223k before Steam's cut
from 317 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Serum: Toxic Survival and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Serum: Toxic Survival's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 20k–51k
best case 385k (魔女的夜宴)
Games like Serum: Toxic Survival

A typical game among these

≈ 20k–51k copies

≈ $47k–$131k after Steam's cut

from ~785 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: 魔女的夜宴 at ≈ 293k–477k copies, ≈ $2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 231 reviews in their first month; the range was 83 to 1k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Horror (6 of 8) and FPS (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sexual Content + FPS, priced around $35.
When they shipped
Only 1 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

iBLiS
2021
Est. copies
≈ 20k–32k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$54k–$146k after Steam's cut $98k–$224k before Steam's cut
$9.99
795 reviews
Mixed
Maurice: In The Predator's Nest
2022
Est. copies
≈ 51k–83k
2.6x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2k reviews
Mostly Positive
MultiplayerAction
魔女的夜宴
2023
Est. copies
≈ 293k–477k
15x vs typical
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$2.8M–$7.6M after Steam's cut $5.1M–$11.7M before Steam's cut
$34.99
12k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Sexual ContentFPS
Bloodwash
2021
Est. copies
≈ 35k–56k
1.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$76k–$205k after Steam's cut $138k–$315k before Steam's cut
$7.99
1k reviews
Very Positive
[Chilla's Art] The Caregiver | 終焉介護
2021
Est. copies
≈ 11k–19k
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$16k–$42k after Steam's cut $29k–$65k before Steam's cut
$4.99
463 reviews
Very Positive
HorrorInvestigation
Sniper Killer
2024
Est. copies
≈ 17k–27k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$56k–$150k after Steam's cut $101k–$231k before Steam's cut
$11.99
682 reviews
Very Positive
IndieHorror
NOeSIS02_羽化
2021
Est. copies
≈ 19k–31k
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
775 reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
RPG2D
NOeSIS Ⅱ-人间无常「重置版」
2023
Est. copies
≈ 5k–8k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$4k–$12k after Steam's cut $8k–$18k before Steam's cut
$2.99
210 reviews
Very Positive
AnimeCute

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.