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How many copies did Noob - The Factionless sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 28k–45k
$230k–$619k after Steam's cut $419k–$953k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Noob - The Factionless and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Noob - The Factionless's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 122k–515k
best case 1.4M (Metaphor: ReFantazio)
Games like Noob - The Factionless

A typical game among these

≈ 122k–515k copies

≈ $946k–$6.0M after Steam's cut

from ~5k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

7 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Metaphor: ReFantazio at ≈ 1.1M–1.7M copies, ≈ $20.7M–$55.7M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 5k reviews in their first month; the range was 758 to 15k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Turn-Based Combat (8 of 8) and Story Rich (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with JRPG + Turn-Based Combat, priced around $70.
When they shipped
5 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. You'd be launching into a busy stretch.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 38 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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