How much revenue did Returnal™ make?

$4.6M–$12.2M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Returnal™ sell?

Q: How many copies did Returnal™ sell?

276k to 448k copies, based on its 11k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 276k–448k; $4.6M–$12.2M after Steam's cut $8.3M–$18.8M before Steam's cut; from 11k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Returnal™ and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Returnal™'s, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 3.8M–6.1M

best case 11.5M (Risk of Rain 2)

Games like Returnal™

A typical game among these

≈ 3.8M–6.1M copies

≈ $9.8M–$22.6M after Steam's cut

from ~76k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Risk of Rain 2 at ≈ 8.8M–14.2M copies, ≈ $60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 103k reviews in their first month; the range was 42k to 129k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Action Roguelike (7 of 8) and Rogue-like (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Third-Person Shooter + Action Roguelike, priced around $25.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Enter the Gungeon 2016	Est. copies ≈ 3.7M–6.1M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $15.4M–$41.5M after Steam's cut $28.1M–$63.9M before Steam's cut	$14.99	90k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Bullet HellAction Roguelike
Hero Siege 2014	Est. copies ≈ 2.7M–4.4M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.9M–$15.8M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.4M before Steam's cut	$7.99	48k reviews Mixed	Action RPGPixel Graphics
Realm of the Mad God Exalt 2012	Est. copies ≈ 3.0M–4.9M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue Free	Free	48k reviews Very Positive	Pixel GraphicsMMORPG
Brotato 2023	Est. copies ≈ 3.0M–4.8M 1.6x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $4.1M–$10.9M after Steam's cut $7.4M–$16.8M before Steam's cut	$4.99	119k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Rogue-likeSingleplayer
Vampire Survivors 2022	Est. copies ≈ 6.6M–10.7M 3.5x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $9.1M–$24.4M after Steam's cut $16.5M–$37.5M before Steam's cut	$4.99	267k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Action RoguelikeBullet Hell
The Binding of Isaac 2011	Est. copies ≈ 4.0M–6.5M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut	$4.99	63k reviews Very Positive	Action RoguelikeRogue-like
Risk of Rain 2 2020	Est. copies ≈ 8.8M–14.2M 4.6x vs typical SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $60.2M–$161.9M after Steam's cut $109.5M–$249.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	353k reviews Very Positive	Third-Person ShooterAction Roguelike
UNO 2017	Est. copies ≈ 1.9M–3.0M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $5.1M–$13.8M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.2M before Steam's cut	$9.99	54k reviews Mostly Positive	Card GameMultiplayer