How much revenue did TRAIL OUT make?

$540k–$1.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did TRAIL OUT sell?

Q: How many copies did TRAIL OUT sell?

98k to 160k copies, based on its 4k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 98k–160k; $540k–$1.5M after Steam's cut $981k–$2.2M before Steam's cut; from 4k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid TRAIL OUT and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including TRAIL OUT's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 8.1M–12.3M

best case 99.7M (Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege)

Games like TRAIL OUT

A typical game among these

≈ 8.1M–12.3M copies

≈ $80.8M–$207.9M after Steam's cut

from ~321k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege at ≈ 76.0M–123.4M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 40k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 89k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share FPS (6 of 8) and Shooter (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with FPS + Tactical. The breakout hits carry Tactical + e-sports + Competitive; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege 2015	Est. copies ≈ 76.0M–123.4M 4.9x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	1.6M reviews Very Positive	FPSPvP
Deep Rock Galactic 2020	Est. copies ≈ 9.4M–15.3M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $77.8M–$209.2M after Steam's cut $141.5M–$321.9M before Steam's cut	$29.99	380k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	DwarfCo-op
People Playground 2019	Est. copies ≈ 9.2M–15.0M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $25.4M–$68.2M after Steam's cut $46.1M–$104.9M before Steam's cut	$9.99	321k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxGore
Battlefield™ V 2020	Est. copies ≈ 6.7M–10.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $92.2M–$247.8M after Steam's cut $167.6M–$381.2M before Steam's cut	$49.99	270k reviews Mostly Positive	FPSMultiplayer
BeamNG.drive 2015	Est. copies ≈ 20.5M–33.4M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $141.2M–$379.6M after Steam's cut $256.7M–$584.0M before Steam's cut	$24.99	421k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SimulationDriving
BattleBit Remastered 2023	Est. copies ≈ 3.6M–5.9M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $15.0M–$40.2M after Steam's cut $27.2M–$61.9M before Steam's cut	$14.99	146k reviews Very Positive	FPSMultiplayer
Battlefield™ 1 2020	Est. copies ≈ 5.7M–9.2M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $62.3M–$167.4M after Steam's cut $113.2M–$257.5M before Steam's cut	$39.99	228k reviews Very Positive	FPSMultiplayer
Battlefield™ 2042 2021	Est. copies ≈ 8.1M–13.1M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $133.3M–$358.3M after Steam's cut $242.3M–$551.3M before Steam's cut	$59.99	326k reviews Mixed	FPSMultiplayer