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How many copies did Once Upon a Jester sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 8k–12k
$32k–$85k after Steam's cut $58k–$131k before Steam's cut
from 310 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Once Upon a Jester and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Once Upon a Jester's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–2.2M
best case 5.5M (Firewatch)
Games like Once Upon a Jester

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–2.2M copies

≈ $13.2M–$18.9M after Steam's cut

from ~37k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Firewatch at ≈ 4.2M–6.8M copies, ≈ $22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Mystery (8 of 8) and Story Rich (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Story Rich + Walking Simulator, priced around $20.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.2M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
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Danganronpa V3: Killing Harmony
2017
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What Remains of Edith Finch
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≈ 1.8M–3.0M
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Firewatch
2016
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≈ 4.2M–6.8M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
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2019
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2018
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Overwhelmingly Positive
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