How much revenue did Firewatch make?

$22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Firewatch sell?

Q: How many copies did Firewatch sell?

4.2M to 6.8M copies, based on its 100k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4.2M–6.8M; $22.9M–$61.5M after Steam's cut $41.6M–$94.6M before Steam's cut; from 100k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Firewatch and predicted how it would do from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Firewatch's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 32.0M–38.8M

best case 32.0M (Cyberpunk 2077)

Games like Firewatch

A typical game among these

≈ 32.0M–38.8M copies

≈ $210.5M–$808.5M after Steam's cut

from ~898k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Cyberpunk 2077 at ≈ 24.4M–39.6M copies, ≈ $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Open World (4 of 5) and Story Rich (4 of 5).
The winners: Winners here lead with Cyberpunk + Open World, priced around $60.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2011 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.8M–33.7M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $114.2M–$306.9M after Steam's cut $207.5M–$472.2M before Steam's cut	$19.99	683k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Portal 2 2011	Est. copies ≈ 29.5M–48.0M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $81.1M–$218.1M after Steam's cut $147.5M–$335.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	467k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Platformer Puzzle
Cyberpunk 2077 2020	Est. copies ≈ 24.4M–39.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut	$59.99	983k reviews Very Positive	CyberpunkOpen World
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 26.6M–43.2M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $438.4M–$1178.6M after Steam's cut $797.0M–$1813.3M before Steam's cut	$59.99	923k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldStory Rich
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt — Remastered 2015	Est. copies ≈ 43.8M–71.2M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $602.5M–$1620.0M after Steam's cut $1095.5M–$2492.3M before Steam's cut	$49.99	898k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldRPG