How much revenue did Firewatch make?

$22.7M–$61.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Firewatch sell?

Q: How many copies did Firewatch sell?

4.1M to 6.7M copies, based on its 99k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 4.1M–6.7M; $22.7M–$61.1M after Steam's cut $41.3M–$94.0M before the cut; from 99k reviews (Very Positive)

A labeled estimate from the public review count (adjusted for release year), not exact sales. Owner data cross-checked with SteamSpy.

Does this actually work?

We left Firewatch out and predicted the genre from its 5 similar games. Every figure here, including Firewatch's, is estimated from Steam reviews, not self-reported sales.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 31.9M–38.7M

best case 31.9M (Cyberpunk 2077)

Games like Firewatch

The middle of these games

≈ 31.9M–38.7M copies

≈ $209.9M–$803.1M after Steam's cut

from ~888k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019’s Steam releases earned about $34k gross, so plan for that or less.

All 5 of your similar games are hits.

Best case: Cyberpunk 2077 at ≈ 24.3M–39.4M copies, ≈ $400.4M–$1076.6M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

Your set: Your set clusters on Open World (4 of 5) and Story Rich (4 of 5).
The winners: Winners here lead with Cyberpunk + Open World, priced around $60.
The era: The games you compared span 2011 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
The Forest 2018	Est. copies ≈ 20.7M–33.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $113.8M–$305.9M after Steam's cut $206.9M–$470.7M before the cut	$19.99	681k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Portal 2 2011	Est. copies ≈ 29.5M–47.9M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $80.9M–$217.6M after Steam's cut $147.2M–$334.8M before the cut	$9.99	466k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Platformer Puzzle
Cyberpunk 2077 2020	Est. copies ≈ 24.3M–39.4M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $400.4M–$1076.6M after Steam's cut $728.1M–$1656.3M before the cut	$59.99	979k reviews Very Positive	CyberpunkOpen World
Red Dead Redemption 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 26.4M–42.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $435.5M–$1170.8M after Steam's cut $791.7M–$1801.2M before the cut	$59.99	917k reviews Very Positive	Open WorldStory Rich
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015	Est. copies ≈ 43.3M–70.4M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $595.5M–$1601.0M after Steam's cut $1082.7M–$2463.1M before the cut	$49.99	888k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	Open WorldRPG