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How many copies did Mars Base sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1k–2k
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$25k before Steam's cut
from 45 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Mars Base and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Mars Base's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.7M–2.0M
best case 5.3M (DAVE THE DIVER)
Games like Mars Base

A typical game among these

≈ 1.7M–2.0M copies

≈ $15.7M–$20.8M after Steam's cut

from ~54k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Crafting (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: DAVE THE DIVER at ≈ 4.0M–6.6M copies, ≈ $22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 26k reviews in their first month; the range was 1k to 43k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Crafting (4 of 8) and Building (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Management + Exploration, priced around $20. The breakout hits carry Fishing + Casual + Relaxing; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 2 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 36 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

DAVE THE DIVER
2023
Est. copies
≈ 4.0M–6.6M
3.0x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$22.2M–$59.8M after Steam's cut $40.4M–$91.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
163k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Pixel GraphicsCasual
Against the Storm
2023
Est. copies
≈ 934k–1.5M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$7.7M–$20.7M after Steam's cut $14.0M–$31.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
38k reviews
Very Positive
StrategyCity Builder
My Time at Portia
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.5M–$28.3M after Steam's cut $19.1M–$43.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
Life SimRPG
SnowRunner
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1.4M–2.3M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.5M–$31.1M after Steam's cut $21.0M–$47.8M before Steam's cut
$29.99
56k reviews
Very Positive
SimulationAutomobile Sim
Forager
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.0M–$18.8M after Steam's cut $12.7M–$28.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
44k reviews
Very Positive
Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Core Keeper
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.7M–2.7M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$9.3M–$24.9M after Steam's cut $16.9M–$38.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
68k reviews
Very Positive
Pixel GraphicsOpen World Survival Craft
The Planet Crafter
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$12.2M–$32.9M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.6M before Steam's cut
$23.99
75k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Open World Survival CraftBase-Building
Spiritfarer®: Farewell Edition
2020
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.2M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$11.0M–$29.5M after Steam's cut $20.0M–$45.4M before Steam's cut
$29.99
54k reviews
Very Positive
EmotionalStory Rich

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.