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How many copies did Out of the Park Baseball 23 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25k–41k
from 1k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Out of the Park Baseball 23 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Out of the Park Baseball 23's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–2.4M
best case 9.2M (theHunter: Call of the Wild™)
Games like Out of the Park Baseball 23

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–2.4M copies

≈ $19.0M–$38.1M after Steam's cut

from ~54k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: theHunter: Call of the Wild™ at ≈ 7.0M–11.4M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 6k reviews in their first month; the range was 55 to 26k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Sports (5 of 8) and Simulation (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Hunting + Open World. The breakout hits carry Hunting + Open World + Nature; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2020. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

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