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How many copies did Without Pain sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 570–927
$312–$839 after Steam's cut $567–$1k before Steam's cut
from 23 reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Without Pain and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Without Pain's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 2.5M–12.6M
best case 125.7M (PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS)
Games like Without Pain

A typical game among these

≈ 2.5M–12.6M copies

≈ $12.2M–$109.9M after Steam's cut

from ~87k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS at ≈ 95.8M–155.7M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Shooter (5 of 8) and FPS (3 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Survival + Shooter.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2019. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 36 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Totally Accurate Battlegrounds
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
88k reviews
Very Positive
MultiplayerPhysics
SteamVR
unreleased
Est. copies
≈ 2.2M–3.5M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
87k reviews
Very Positive
VRSoftware
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam
2017
Est. copies
≈ 2.0M–3.3M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$14.0M–$37.7M after Steam's cut $25.5M–$58.0M before Steam's cut
$24.99
59k reviews
Very Positive
FPSWargame
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III
2015
Est. copies
≈ 309k–501k
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5.1M–$13.7M after Steam's cut $9.3M–$21.1M before Steam's cut
$59.99
6k reviews
Mostly Negative
MultiplayerFPS
DayZ
2018
Est. copies
≈ 14.3M–23.2M
5.4x vs typical
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$196.4M–$527.9M after Steam's cut $357.0M–$812.2M before Steam's cut
$49.99
470k reviews
Mostly Positive
SurvivalOpen World
PUBG: BATTLEGROUNDS
2017
Est. copies
≈ 95.8M–155.7M
32x vs typical
SteamSpy 100M–200M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
2.8M reviews
Mixed
SurvivalShooter
The Long Drive
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$7.2M–$19.2M after Steam's cut $13.0M–$29.6M before Steam's cut
$15.99
57k reviews
Very Positive
DrivingOpen World
SCP: Secret Laboratory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
2.7x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
235k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer

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