How much revenue did Thrive make?

$60k–$161k after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Thrive sell?

Q: How many copies did Thrive sell?

44k to 71k copies, based on its 2k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 44k–71k; $60k–$161k after Steam's cut $109k–$247k before Steam's cut; from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Thrive and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Thrive's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.4M–2.0M

best case 9.4M (Kerbal Space Program)

Games like Thrive

A typical game among these

≈ 1.4M–2.0M copies

≈ $15.4M–$25.6M after Steam's cut

from ~42k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Kerbal Space Program at ≈ 7.2M–11.7M copies, ≈ $79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 34k reviews in their first month; the range was 11k to 38k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share Sandbox (5 of 8) and Simulation (5 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Space + Simulation, priced around $40. The breakout hits carry Space Sim + Moddable + Physics; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2008 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Cell to Singularity - Evolution Never Ends 2021	Est. copies ≈ 698k–1.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue Free	Free	28k reviews Very Positive	ClickerFree to Play
Timberborn 2026	Est. copies ≈ 1.0M–1.7M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $10.0M–$26.9M after Steam's cut $18.2M–$41.4M before Steam's cut	$34.99	42k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	City BuilderVoxel
Trailmakers 2019	Est. copies ≈ 1.1M–1.8M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $7.8M–$21.0M after Steam's cut $14.2M–$32.3M before Steam's cut	$24.99	39k reviews Very Positive	SpaceAction
Besiege 2020	Est. copies ≈ 1.3M–2.1M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	53k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SimulationSandbox
Universe Sandbox 2015	Est. copies ≈ 1.6M–2.6M SteamSpy 1M–2M	Est. revenue $13.0M–$35.0M after Steam's cut $23.6M–$53.8M before Steam's cut	$29.99	32k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxSpace
Kerbal Space Program 2015	Est. copies ≈ 7.2M–11.7M 3.5x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $79.0M–$212.3M after Steam's cut $143.6M–$326.6M before Steam's cut	$39.99	147k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SpaceSimulation
SPORE™ 2008	Est. copies ≈ 4.6M–7.5M 1.7x vs typical SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $25.3M–$68.0M after Steam's cut $46.0M–$104.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	73k reviews Very Positive	God GameOpen World
Abiotic Factor 2025	Est. copies ≈ 1.5M–2.4M SteamSpy 500k–1M	Est. revenue $14.2M–$38.2M after Steam's cut $25.8M–$58.7M before Steam's cut	$34.99	59k reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SurvivalOnline Co-Op