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How many copies did I'm on Observation Duty 5 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 20k–33k
$56k–$150k after Steam's cut $101k–$230k before Steam's cut
from 817 reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid I'm on Observation Duty 5 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including I'm on Observation Duty 5's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 15.3M–52.6M
best case 99.7M (Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege)
Games like I'm on Observation Duty 5

A typical game among these

≈ 15.3M–52.6M copies

≈ $113.4M–$379.0M after Steam's cut

from ~724k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Co-op (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege at ≈ 76.0M–123.4M copies.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Co-op (4 of 8) and Horror (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with FPS + Tactical.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2023, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dead by Daylight
2016
Est. copies
≈ 39.0M–63.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut $389.4M–$886.0M before Steam's cut
$19.99
937k reviews
Mostly Positive
HorrorMultiplayer
Ready or Not
2023
Est. copies
≈ 8.6M–14.0M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$118.4M–$318.4M after Steam's cut $215.3M–$489.8M before Steam's cut
$49.99
347k reviews
Mostly Positive
TacticalRealistic
Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Siege
2015
Est. copies
≈ 76.0M–123.4M
2.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1.6M reviews
Very Positive
FPSPvP
SCP: Secret Laboratory
2017
Est. copies
≈ 8.1M–13.1M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
235k reviews
Very Positive
Free to PlayMultiplayer
Lethal Company
2023
Est. copies
≈ 12.7M–20.6M
SteamSpy 10M–20M
Est. revenue
$34.8M–$93.6M after Steam's cut $63.3M–$144.0M before Steam's cut
$9.99
511k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Online Co-OpHorror
Stardew Valley
2016
Est. copies
≈ 43.5M–70.7M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$179.4M–$482.4M after Steam's cut $326.2M–$742.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Farming SimPixel Graphics
Wallpaper Engine
2018
Est. copies
≈ 31.0M–50.3M
SteamSpy 20M–50M
Est. revenue
$42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut
$4.99
1.0M reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
MatureUtilities
DARK SOULS™ III
2016
Est. copies
≈ 18.3M–29.8M
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$302.7M–$813.9M after Steam's cut $550.4M–$1252.2M before Steam's cut
$59.99
441k reviews
Very Positive
Souls-likeDark Fantasy

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