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How many copies did NBA 2K23 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
from 51k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid NBA 2K23 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including NBA 2K23's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 114–4k
best case 1.4M (NBA 2K25)
Games like NBA 2K23

A typical game among these

≈ 114–4k copies

≈ $361–$23k after Steam's cut

from ~5 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

1 of the 8 similar games is a hit.

Best case: NBA 2K25 at ≈ 1.1M–1.7M copies, ≈ $20.5M–$55.1M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
The games that made it here had under 7k reviews in their first month.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Basketball (8 of 8) and Sports (8 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Sports + Basketball, priced around $70. The breakout hits carry Controller + PvP + 3D; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
Only 3 of the 8 similar games shipped in the last two years. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate of about 31, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Pickup Basketball VR
2021
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
15x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$5k–$14k after Steam's cut $10k–$22k before Steam's cut
$9.99
77 reviews
Mostly Positive
SportsVR
Pro Basketball Manager 2025
2024
Est. copies
≈ 4k–7k
36x vs typical
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$30k–$82k after Steam's cut $55k–$125k before Steam's cut
$24.99
178 reviews
Mixed
SportsStrategy
Urban Basketball
2020
Est. copies
≈ 25–40
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
1 reviews
1 user reviews
SportsVR
International Basketball Manager 22
2021
Est. copies
≈ 5k–9k
44x vs typical
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$15k–$40k after Steam's cut $27k–$62k before Steam's cut
$9.99
221 reviews
Very Positive
SportsSimulation
Can Gym Break This?
2022
Est. copies
≈ 99–161
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$272–$732 after Steam's cut $495–$1k before Steam's cut
$9.99
4 reviews
4 user reviews
SportsArcade
Basketball 2.0
2024
Est. copies
≈ 74–121
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$41–$110 after Steam's cut $74–$169 before Steam's cut
$1.99
3 reviews
3 user reviews
SimulationSports
NBA 2K25
2024
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
8589x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$20.5M–$55.1M after Steam's cut $37.3M–$84.8M before Steam's cut
$69.99
43k reviews
Mixed
SportsBasketball
Rezzil Player
2022
Est. copies
≈ 124–202
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$170–$459 after Steam's cut $309–$706 before Steam's cut
$4.99
5 reviews
5 user reviews
SimulationSports

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.