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How many copies did On the Dragon Wings - Birth of a Hero sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 2k–4k
$3k–$9k after Steam's cut $6k–$14k before Steam's cut
from 99 reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid On the Dragon Wings - Birth of a Hero and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including On the Dragon Wings - Birth of a Hero's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 4k–24k
best case 129k (Gedonia)
Games like On the Dragon Wings - Birth of a Hero

A typical game among these

≈ 4k–24k copies

≈ $27k–$451k after Steam's cut

from ~340 reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

2 of the 8 similar games are hits.

Best case: Gedonia at ≈ 98k–160k copies, ≈ $406k–$1.1M after Steam's cut.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 40 reviews in their first month; the range was 7 to 2k.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share CRPG (7 of 8) and Exploration (5 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Open World + Third Person, priced around $15.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2016 to 2025, and 3 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 52 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

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ExplorationTactical RPG
Gedonia
2022
Est. copies
≈ 98k–160k
12x vs typical
SteamSpy 200k–500k
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$406k–$1.1M after Steam's cut $738k–$1.7M before Steam's cut
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Very Positive
Open WorldRPG
Wizardry: Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord
2024
Est. copies
≈ 32k–52k
3.8x vs typical
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$34.99
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SteamSpy under 20k
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Action RoguelikeExploration
Infinite Mana
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≈ 918–1k
SteamSpy under 20k
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$6k–$17k after Steam's cut $11k–$26k before Steam's cut
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Mostly Positive
Story RichOpen World

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