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How many copies did 道衍诀 sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 25k–41k
$83k–$222k after Steam's cut $150k–$342k before Steam's cut
from 1k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid 道衍诀 and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including 道衍诀's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 138k–580k
best case 1.0M (Dungeon Defenders II)
Games like 道衍诀

A typical game among these

≈ 138k–580k copies

≈ $740k–$862k after Steam's cut

from ~4k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

3 of the 8 similar games are hits.

No genre covers most of these similar games. The closest is Action RPG (4 of 8), so its genre is hard to place.

Of the 416 indie games that passed 1,000 reviews in 2022, 11.8% were novel genre mixes and 88.2% stuck to an established genre. Published indie market research.

Best case: Dungeon Defenders II at ≈ 763k–1.2M copies.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 21 reviews in their first month; the range was 2 to 285.
Games with under about 100 reviews in month one almost never recover.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Action RPG (4 of 8) and Strategy RPG (4 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Tower Defense + Strategy RPG.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2017 to 2024, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 43 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Dungeon Defenders II
2017
Est. copies
≈ 763k–1.2M
6.2x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
22k reviews
Mostly Positive
MultiplayerOnline Co-Op
Low Magic Age
2017
Est. copies
≈ 121k–197k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$500k–$1.3M after Steam's cut $910k–$2.1M before Steam's cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Very Positive
Early AccessDungeons & Dragons
Conquest
2021
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$624–$2k after Steam's cut $1k–$3k before Steam's cut
$1.99
46 reviews
Mixed
RPGVR
AbsentedAge: Squarebound
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2k–3k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$6k–$16k after Steam's cut $11k–$25k before Steam's cut
$12.99
67 reviews
Very Positive
Rogue-likeAction RPG
Our Adventurer Guild
2024
Est. copies
≈ 89k–145k
SteamSpy 100k–200k
Est. revenue
$368k–$990k after Steam's cut $670k–$1.5M before Steam's cut
$14.99
4k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Storms 2
2021
Est. copies
≈ 446–725
too small to compare
SteamSpy 20k–50k
Est. revenue
$244–$657 after Steam's cut $444–$1k before Steam's cut
$1.99
18 reviews
Mostly Positive
Action RPGAdventure
Age of Gladiators Reforged
2023
Est. copies
≈ 1k–2k
too small to compare
SteamSpy under 20k
Est. revenue
$3k–$8k after Steam's cut $6k–$13k before Steam's cut
$7.99
57 reviews
Mixed
StrategySimulation
百煉登神 Immortal Tales of Rebirth
2024
Est. copies
≈ 3k–4k
too small to compare
SteamSpy 50k–100k
Est. revenue
$11k–$28k after Steam's cut $19k–$44k before Steam's cut
$14.99
103 reviews
Mixed
Hand-drawnMartial Arts

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