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How many copies did Double Dragon Gaiden: Rise Of The Dragons sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 43k–70k
$298k–$800k after Steam's cut $541k–$1.2M before Steam's cut
from 2k reviews (Very Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Double Dragon Gaiden: Rise Of The Dragons and predicted how it would do from its 4 similar games. Every figure here, including Double Dragon Gaiden: Rise Of The Dragons's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.3M–5.4M
best case 10.0M (Cuphead)
Games like Double Dragon Gaiden: Rise Of The Dragons

A typical game among these

≈ 1.3M–5.4M copies

≈ $8.8M–$36.3M after Steam's cut

from ~45k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 4 of the similar games are hits.

This comes from a small set of games, so take it as a sketch.

Best case: Cuphead at ≈ 7.6M–12.4M copies, ≈ $41.9M–$112.7M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Platformer (3 of 4) and Co-op (2 of 4).
The winners
Winners here lead with Co-op + Platformer, priced around $20.
When they shipped
None of the similar games shipped in the last two years; the newest is from 2017. That says more about which games were found than about the market.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 43 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Broforce
2015
Est. copies
≈ 3.0M–4.8M
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
$12.3M–$33.0M after Steam's cut $22.3M–$50.8M before Steam's cut
$14.99
61k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AmericaAction
Sonic Mania
2017
Est. copies
≈ 995k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$5.5M–$14.7M after Steam's cut $9.9M–$22.6M before Steam's cut
$19.99
29k reviews
Very Positive
Great Soundtrack2D
Cuphead
2017
Est. copies
≈ 7.6M–12.4M
4.9x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$41.9M–$112.7M after Steam's cut $76.2M–$173.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
222k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DifficultCartoon
Lost Castle / 失落城堡
2016
Est. copies
≈ 998k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$2.7M–$7.4M after Steam's cut $5.0M–$11.3M before Steam's cut
$9.99
24k reviews
Very Positive
4 Player LocalAction Roguelike

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