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How many copies did Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 215k–349k
$1.8M–$4.8M after Steam's cut $3.2M–$7.3M before Steam's cut
from 9k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 1.6M–2.4M
best case 3.5M (Outer Wilds)
Games like Ghost Trick: Phantom Detective

A typical game among these

≈ 1.6M–2.4M copies

≈ $7.7M–$19.2M after Steam's cut

from ~35k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Outer Wilds at ≈ 2.7M–4.4M copies, ≈ $18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share Mystery (7 of 8) and Story Rich (7 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with Exploration + Space, priced around $25. The breakout hits carry Space + Exploration + Adventure; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2014 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

The Room
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–2.9M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$2.4M–$6.6M after Steam's cut $4.4M–$10.1M before Steam's cut
$4.99
32k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzleMystery
Outer Wilds
2020
Est. copies
≈ 2.7M–4.4M
3.1x vs typical
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$18.5M–$49.7M after Steam's cut $33.6M–$76.4M before Steam's cut
$24.99
108k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
ExplorationSpace
Return of the Obra Dinn
2018
Est. copies
≈ 1.1M–1.7M
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$5.9M–$15.9M after Steam's cut $10.7M–$24.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
35k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveMystery
Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney Trilogy
2019
Est. copies
≈ 1.3M–2.1M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$10.8M–$28.9M after Steam's cut $19.5M–$44.5M before Steam's cut
$29.99
45k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectiveVisual Novel
What Remains of Edith Finch
2017
Est. copies
≈ 1.8M–3.0M
1.5x vs typical
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$10.1M–$27.2M after Steam's cut $18.4M–$41.8M before Steam's cut
$19.99
53k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
Story RichAtmospheric
Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc
2016
Est. copies
≈ 1.6M–2.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$19.99
39k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
AnimeVisual Novel
Unheard - Voices of Crime
2019
Est. copies
≈ 981k–1.6M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$1.9M–$5.1M after Steam's cut $3.4M–$7.8M before Steam's cut
$6.99
34k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
DetectivePuzzle
The Talos Principle
2014
Est. copies
≈ 1.9M–3.0M
SteamSpy 1M–2M
Est. revenue
$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.2M before Steam's cut
$29.99
33k reviews
Overwhelmingly Positive
PuzzlePhilosophical

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