How much revenue did The Talos Principle make?

$15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did The Talos Principle sell?

Q: How many copies did The Talos Principle sell?

1.9M to 3.0M copies, based on its 33k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 1.9M–3.0M; $15.3M–$41.1M after Steam's cut $27.8M–$63.2M before Steam's cut; from 33k reviews (Overwhelmingly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid The Talos Principle and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including The Talos Principle's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 32.7M–48.5M

best case 820.1M (Counter-Strike 2)

Games like The Talos Principle

A typical game among these

≈ 32.7M–48.5M copies

≈ $211.6M–$405.6M after Steam's cut

from ~1.0M reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Counter-Strike 2 at ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M copies. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like

About half the games that made it here had over 76k reviews in their first month; the range was 40k to 326k.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share First-Person (5 of 8) and FPS (3 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World + Crime. The breakout hits carry Action + Crime + Automobile Sim; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2006 to 2020, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 79 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Grand Theft Auto V Legacy 2015	Est. copies ≈ 101.5M–164.9M 2.1x vs typical SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	2.1M reviews Very Positive	Open WorldAction
Counter-Strike 2 2012	Est. copies ≈ 624.8M–1015.3M 9.9x vs typical SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	9.9M reviews Very Positive	FPSShooter
Dead by Daylight 2016	Est. copies ≈ 39.0M–63.3M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $214.2M–$575.9M after Steam's cut $389.4M–$886.0M before Steam's cut	$19.99	937k reviews Mostly Positive	HorrorMultiplayer
Garry's Mod 2006	Est. copies ≈ 80.0M–130.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $219.9M–$591.3M after Steam's cut $399.8M–$909.6M before Steam's cut	$9.99	1.3M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	SandboxModdable
Apex Legends™ 2020	Est. copies ≈ 26.6M–43.2M SteamSpy 100M–200M	Est. revenue Free	Free	1.1M reviews Mixed	Free to PlayBattle Royale
Cyberpunk 2077 2020	Est. copies ≈ 24.4M–39.6M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $402.0M–$1080.8M after Steam's cut $730.9M–$1662.7M before Steam's cut	$59.99	983k reviews Very Positive	CyberpunkOpen World
Phasmophobia 2020	Est. copies ≈ 20.9M–33.9M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue $114.8M–$308.5M after Steam's cut $208.6M–$474.7M before Steam's cut	$19.99	842k reviews Very Positive	HorrorOnline Co-Op
Wallpaper Engine 2018	Est. copies ≈ 31.0M–50.3M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $42.5M–$114.3M after Steam's cut $77.3M–$175.9M before Steam's cut	$4.99	1.0M reviews Overwhelmingly Positive	MatureUtilities