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How many copies did Pax Dei sell?

Estimated copies sold
≈ 282k–459k
$2.3M–$6.3M after Steam's cut $4.2M–$9.6M before Steam's cut
from 11k reviews (Mixed)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Pax Dei and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Pax Dei's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 318k–544k
best case 4.3M (Black Desert)
Games like Pax Dei

A typical game among these

≈ 318k–544k copies

≈ $6.3M–$6.8M after Steam's cut

from ~12k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: Black Desert at ≈ 3.2M–5.3M copies, ≈ $8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut. It is a breakout hit, far above a typical game.

What their first month looked like
About half the games that made it here had over 11k reviews in their first month; the range was 6k to 12k.
The genre you'd be entering
These games
The similar games share MMORPG (7 of 8) and Open World (6 of 8).
The winners
Winners here lead with MMORPG + Open World, priced around $10. The breakout hits carry Massively Multiplayer + RPG; a typical game here doesn't.
When they shipped
The similar games span 2015 to 2026, and 2 of the 8 shipped in the last two years.
How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 61 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Black Desert
2017
Est. copies
≈ 3.2M–5.3M
7.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 5M–10M
Est. revenue
$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut
$9.99
94k reviews
Mostly Positive
MMORPGMassively Multiplayer
Gloria Victis: Medieval MMORPG
2026
Est. copies
≈ 299k–485k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
12k reviews
Mixed
MMORPGMedieval
Myth of Empires
2024
Est. copies
≈ 437k–710k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.6M–$9.7M after Steam's cut $6.6M–$14.9M before Steam's cut
$29.99
18k reviews
Mixed
BuildingOpen World Survival Craft
Life is Feudal: Your Own
2015
Est. copies
≈ 589k–957k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
$3.2M–$8.7M after Steam's cut $5.9M–$13.4M before Steam's cut
$19.99
12k reviews
Mixed
Open World Survival CraftMedieval
Mortal Online 2
2022
Est. copies
≈ 345k–561k
SteamSpy 500k–1M
Est. revenue
$3.8M–$10.2M after Steam's cut $6.9M–$15.7M before Steam's cut
$39.99
14k reviews
Mixed
MMORPGSandbox
Albion Online
2018
Est. copies
≈ 2.9M–4.6M
7.8x vs typical
SteamSpy 2M–5M
Est. revenue
Free
Free
94k reviews
Mostly Positive
Free to PlayMMORPG
Shroud of the Avatar: Forsaken Virtues
2018
Est. copies
≈ 97k–158k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
3k reviews
Mixed
RPGMassively Multiplayer
Life is Feudal: MMO
2018
Est. copies
≈ 224k–363k
SteamSpy 200k–500k
Est. revenue
Free
Free
7k reviews
Mixed
MMORPGOpen World Survival Craft

Sizing up your own game? See how many copies games in its genre usually sell before you build it.