How much revenue did Black Desert make?

$8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's roughly 30% cut, derived from the copies estimate and its price.

How many copies did Black Desert sell?

Q: How many copies did Black Desert sell?

3.2M to 5.3M copies, based on its 94k Steam reviews. This is a labeled estimate from the review count, not exact sales.

Estimated copies sold: ≈ 3.2M–5.3M; $8.9M–$24.0M after Steam's cut $16.2M–$36.9M before Steam's cut; from 94k reviews (Mostly Positive)

Copies are estimated from the public review count, adjusted for release year, and cross-checked against SteamSpy's own estimate.

Did the prediction match what actually happened?

We hid Black Desert and predicted how it would do from its 8 similar games. Every figure here, including Black Desert's, is estimated from Steam reviews.

Copies, estimated from reviews

typical (middle half) 7.1M–15.4M

best case 35.2M (ARK: Survival Evolved)

Games like Black Desert

A typical game among these

≈ 7.1M–15.4M copies

≈ $52.6M–$130.0M after Steam's cut

from ~216k reviews

Only the top fifth of 2019's Steam releases earned $34k or more before Steam's cut, so plan for that or less.

All 8 of the similar games are hits.

Best case: ARK: Survival Evolved at ≈ 26.8M–43.5M copies, ≈ $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut.

The genre you'd be entering

These games: The similar games share MMORPG (6 of 8) and Open World (6 of 8).
The winners: Winners here lead with Open World Survival Craft + Survival, priced around $15.
When they shipped: The similar games span 2014 to 2021, and none of them shipped in the last two years.

How these numbers were worked out

A hit here: 1,000+ reviews, roughly $150k+ before Steam's cut (a standard indie benchmark).

Copies come from each game's reviews times a sales-per-review rate that falls with release age, from about 31 for the most recent game here to about 70 for the oldest, then widened into a range; revenue rides on that estimate times price. Source: GameDiscoverCo (2020) and VG Insights (2021).

Similar games

Game	Est. copies	Est. revenue	Price	Reviews	Tags
Trove 2015	Est. copies ≈ 4.5M–7.4M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	93k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayOpen World
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017	Est. copies ≈ 26.8M–43.5M 3.6x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue $110.4M–$296.8M after Steam's cut $200.7M–$456.6M before Steam's cut	$14.99	779k reviews Very Positive	Open World Survival CraftSurvival
Destiny 2 2019	Est. copies ≈ 19.1M–31.0M 3.1x vs typical SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	663k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayOpen World
New World: Aeternum 2021	Est. copies ≈ 7.4M–12.0M SteamSpy 50M–100M	Est. revenue Free	Free	297k reviews Mixed	Open WorldMassively Multiplayer
FINAL FANTASY XIV Online 2014	Est. copies ≈ 4.8M–7.8M SteamSpy 2M–5M	Est. revenue $26.4M–$71.0M after Steam's cut $48.0M–$109.3M before Steam's cut	$19.99	86k reviews Very Positive	MMORPGRPG
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017	Est. copies ≈ 5.6M–9.0M SteamSpy 5M–10M	Est. revenue $30.6M–$82.2M after Steam's cut $55.6M–$126.5M before Steam's cut	$19.99	162k reviews Very Positive	RPGMMORPG
SMITE® 2015	Est. copies ≈ 5.9M–9.5M SteamSpy 10M–20M	Est. revenue Free	Free	120k reviews Mostly Positive	Free to PlayMOBA
VRChat 2017	Est. copies ≈ 9.3M–15.1M SteamSpy 20M–50M	Est. revenue Free	Free	269k reviews Mostly Positive	VRFree to Play